Model of Transmission Dynamicsof COVID-19 including Natural Birth Rateand considering the Differencein Death Ratesof Uninfectedand Infected Population

Abstract

We have presented a mathematical model using Ordinary Differential Equations to investigate the transmission of COVID-19. We included the parameter for the natural birth rate of the susceptibles, considering the fact that births take place each day. Taking into account that the infected population would have a higher death rate than the uninfected population, we used different parameters for the death rate of the uninfected and the infected population. We estimated an 0 R of approximately 2.9, meaning that on an average each patient has been spreading the infection to 2.9 other people. The values of the parameters of the model have been estimated based on available data and numerical illustration has been carried out to describe the transmission process.